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A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. They writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.

Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.

"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."

Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."